NIFTY 50 Technical Outlook – Short-Term Support Testing Zone

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NIFTY 50 Technical Outlook – Short-Term Support Testing Zone

Date: 28 July 2025
Time Frame: 120 Minutes
Current Market Price (CMP): 24,680.75

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Recent Price Action: A Quick Recap

After attempting a rally toward 25,266, the index failed to break higher and faced a clear rejection from that resistance band. What followed was a steady descent, now taking prices below key minor demand zones (marked in green), with the index nearing a critical short-term support cluster between 24,390–24,500.

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Support Cluster Zone: 24,390–24,500

The area marked with purple arrows on your chart highlights an important demand belt formed through:

• Multiple prior swing lows
• A base of accumulation zone
• Breakout retest area

This price band has historically acted as a springboard, rejecting bearish attempts and inviting fresh buyers in the past. The more recent bounce from this zone adds credibility to its structural strength.

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Key Technical Observations

1. Volume-Weighted Behavior: Though not visible in this image, if volume increases near 24,500 with a long lower wick or consolidation, that would affirm institutional defense.

2. Structure Breakdown Alert: A clean breakdown below 24,390 may invalidate the support. Below that, eyes shift toward the next major base near 23,900, indicating ~2% downside risk.

3. Resistance Above: Any upside relief rallies may face a ceiling at 24,744, followed by the supply wall at 25,266 (marked in red). This area needs a high-momentum breakout to flip trend.

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Bulls vs. Bears: Short-Term Battlezone

This 24,390–24,500 pocket is now a make-or-break support zone for bulls. If held:

Expect quick 150–200 point mean reversion
If broken, sellers could aggressively aim for 23,700 support

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Strategy Pointers

For Positional Traders:

• Watch price behavior on 15m–1H timeframes at 24,400 zone
• Look for bullish candle confirmation before considering long entries

For Option Sellers:

• A straddle/strangle can be considered only after market confirms base
• Implied volatility analysis needed before trade sizing

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🧠 Final Take: “Respect Structure Until Broken”

The 24,390–24,500 zone is the last short-term fortress for bulls. If broken, the tone may turn risk-off. Hold it – and it’s a possible launchpad for short-covering rallies. Let price action and market tempo guide your next move.

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