10 Saal Green Ke Baad, Kya Ab Red Ki Baari Hai?

[Nishant Bhandari-1773737014907]

If you look at the Nifty 50 yearly chart, one thing stands out. From 2016 to 2025, Nifty closed every single year in the green. Through all the ups and downs, the streak continued.
But 2026 is testing that run.
Nifty is currently trading well below its 2025 closing level, and the yearly candle is red. With the final months of the year left, it makes you wonder will the bulls manage a comeback, or will 2026 finally break the 10-year streak?

Let’s look at what the numbers say.

How much does Nifty need to recover?

Nifty closed 2025 at around 26,130. If it is trading near 22,600, it is down roughly 13.5% for the year.
To finish 2026 in the green, it needs to close above 26,130. That means a rally of around 16% from current levels.
The year's high was 26,373, while the low so far is around 22,182. That’s a fall of nearly 16% from the high, and the index is still close to its yearly low.
So yes, the recovery needed is quite big. But the year isn't over yet.

A decade of green candles. Just think about that!

The run from 2016 to 2025 is the longest stretch of consecutive green yearly candles since 2000. Before this, Nifty had managed six green years in a row, from 2002 to 2007.
The last red year was 2015, when Nifty fell around 3.8%.
Since 2000, there have been only five red years: 2000, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2015.
But not all red years are the same. Nifty fell around 51.8% in 2008 and 24.6% in 2011. The current fall is painful, but it is nowhere near those declines so far.
And here’s something else worth remembering: green doesn't always mean great returns. In 2002, 2016, 2018 and 2022, Nifty gained less than 5% for the year.

What if Nifty ends the year around these levels?

The level to watch is 26,130. A year-end close above it would keep the streak alive. A close below it would mean the first red yearly candle since 2015.
Interestingly, after four of the five red years since 2000, the following year ended in the green. It's a small sample, so we can't read too much into it. Still, it's an interesting bit of history.

What do you think?

Personally, I find this 10-year streak fascinating. We've seen several market corrections and uncertain phases, yet Nifty managed to close every year in the green from 2016 to 2025.

But can history repeat itself this time?

Aapko kya lagta hai? Will Nifty manage a recovery in the final months of 2026, or are we heading towards our first red yearly candle in over a decade?

I'd like to hear how you're reading the market. Share your thoughts in the comments it'll be interesting to see how other traders and investors are looking at this.