Two numbers help us understand what is happening in Index Futures: contracts and turnover.
Contracts tell us how many positions were traded, while turnover tells us the total value of those trades.
When both numbers fall, it generally means that trading activity is slowing down.That is what we see in the data for 2025 and 2026.

Index Futures are used by traders and institutions to take positions on the Nifty or Sensex, and also to hedge their existing portfolios. A significant part of the activity comes from professional, proprietary and computer-based traders, so changes in their participation can have a large impact on overall volumes.

The Downtrend in Activity

April and May 2025 were among the busiest months, with around 42–45 lakh contracts.
Activity then gradually declined and settled around the 26–30 lakh range during the second half of 2025.
The start of 2026 was somewhat stronger, with 34–35 lakh contracts in January and February.
Then March saw a sharp jump to 50.5 lakh contracts, the highest level in the entire period.
But it did not last.

By August 2026, contracts had fallen to 17.6 lakh, the lowest level in the data.
Turnover tells the same story. August 2026 recorded around ₹2.88 lakh crore, also the lowest in the period and well below the 2025 low of around ₹5 lakh crore.
So, August 2026 did not just see a fall from the March high. It went below the lowest levels seen during 2025.

Why Did March See Such High Activity?
March needs to be looked at differently.
The market was falling almost continuously through the month. Such a market usually brings higher volatility and more hedging activity.
Large investors can use Index Futures to protect their equity portfolios when the market falls. When the decline continues for several weeks, this can create a large number of futures trades.
That helps explain the 50.5 lakh contracts seen in March.

In April, the market stopped falling and started forming a base. As volatility and the need for urgent hedging reduced, futures activity also came down.
So March looks more like a market-condition-driven spike than the start of a new rising trend.

STT Added Another Pressure
From 1 April 2026, STT on futures increased from 0.02% to 0.05% of traded value.
The increase matters particularly for traders who make a large number of trades with small margins, such as arbitrage, high-frequency and proprietary traders.
There was also a decline in the share of proprietary trading in equity futures, from 32.7% in March to 28.3% in April.
But it would be too simple to say that STT alone caused the fall. The market had also moved from a sharp decline into a more stable phase, which naturally reduced some of the activity.

Then Came CAS
By July, tighter trading rules and funding conditions had added further pressure on some leveraged and proprietary participants.
Then, on 3 August 2026, the Closing Auction Session (CAS) started in the cash market.
The CAS runs from 3:15 PM to 3:35 PM, while Index Futures continue trading until 3:40 PM.
CAS does not directly change the futures market. Its impact can come indirectly through the cash market because futures, hedging and arbitrage strategies are closely linked to the underlying stocks.
Changes in closing liquidity and price-setting may lead some traders to square off earlier and reduce activity near the close.
Why August Was Different
August was the first full month after CAS began, but it was also a relatively quiet and range-bound month.

So several factors came together:
Higher STT + tighter rules and funding + changes in closing behaviour + low market volatility.
The result was the lowest Index Futures activity in the entire period:
17.6 lakh contracts and ₹2.88 lakh crore turnover.
It would therefore be too early to attribute the August decline to CAS alone. The fall appears to be the result of several factors working together.

The Takeaway
The bigger story is that Index Futures activity has gradually declined from the high levels seen in early 2025.
March 2026 was an exception, driven by a sharp market decline, higher volatility and increased hedging.
After that spike, activity continued to weaken and eventually fell below the lows seen in 2025.
The higher STT, tighter rules and funding conditions, changes in end-of-day behaviour and a quieter market have all contributed to this decline.

If you look at the Nifty 50 yearly chart, one thing stands out. From 2016 to 2025, Nifty closed every single year in the green. Through all the ups and downs, the streak continued.
But 2026 is testing that run.
Nifty is currently trading well below its 2025 closing level, and the yearly candle is red. With the final months of the year left, it makes you wonder will the bulls manage a comeback, or will 2026 finally break the 10-year streak?

Let’s look at what the numbers say.

How much does Nifty need to recover?

Nifty closed 2025 at around 26,130. If it is trading near 22,600, it is down roughly 13.5% for the year.
To finish 2026 in the green, it needs to close above 26,130. That means a rally of around 16% from current levels.
The year's high was 26,373, while the low so far is around 22,182. That’s a fall of nearly 16% from the high, and the index is still close to its yearly low.
So yes, the recovery needed is quite big. But the year isn't over yet.

A decade of green candles. Just think about that!

The run from 2016 to 2025 is the longest stretch of consecutive green yearly candles since 2000. Before this, Nifty had managed six green years in a row, from 2002 to 2007.
The last red year was 2015, when Nifty fell around 3.8%.
Since 2000, there have been only five red years: 2000, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2015.
But not all red years are the same. Nifty fell around 51.8% in 2008 and 24.6% in 2011. The current fall is painful, but it is nowhere near those declines so far.
And here’s something else worth remembering: green doesn't always mean great returns. In 2002, 2016, 2018 and 2022, Nifty gained less than 5% for the year.

What if Nifty ends the year around these levels?

The level to watch is 26,130. A year-end close above it would keep the streak alive. A close below it would mean the first red yearly candle since 2015.
Interestingly, after four of the five red years since 2000, the following year ended in the green. It's a small sample, so we can't read too much into it. Still, it's an interesting bit of history.

What do you think?

Personally, I find this 10-year streak fascinating. We've seen several market corrections and uncertain phases, yet Nifty managed to close every year in the green from 2016 to 2025.

But can history repeat itself this time?

Aapko kya lagta hai? Will Nifty manage a recovery in the final months of 2026, or are we heading towards our first red yearly candle in over a decade?

I'd like to hear how you're reading the market. Share your thoughts in the comments it'll be interesting to see how other traders and investors are looking at this.

This comparison highlights how different charting methods Line Break, Point & Figure, Candlestick, and Renko can still reveal the same underlying market structure.
In this case, an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern appears consistently across all four charts at a similar price level.
Despite differences in how price is plotted (time-based vs. price-based), the core price action remains the same.

@Anuj Mehta
Hi Sir,
You can create this condition using the System Builder and RS Scanner feature.
Go to System Builder → from the dropdown select Ratio → click on Create System Builder → then click Add → Indicator → select Supertrend → set Expression = 1 and save it.
After that, go to RS Scanner → Ratio Scanner. In the Conditions dropdown, select MY, and then apply the Supertrend condition you created.
You can then run the scan, and it will filter stocks based on your required RS Supertrend bullish crossover condition.
Hope this helps.

Every RBI rate move sparks the same debate. Will a rate hike hurt the market? Will a cut lift it?

We reviewed 11 RBI rate phases since 2001. The direction of rates alone did not decide the Nifty 50's return. All 10 completed phases, and the current rate-cut phase up to 13 April 2026, showed a positive return.

How we defined a rate phase

We treated consecutive rate moves in the same direction as one phase.

• A rate-hike phase runs from the first hike to the first cut.

• A rate-cut phase runs from the first cut to the first hike.

A pause does not end a phase. Only a move in the opposite direction does. This gave us five rate-hike phases and six rate-cut phases.

The latest rate-cut phase is still running. Its return is measured up to 13 April 2026, the latest Nifty data used in this study.

What the data shows

The Nifty 50 had a positive return in every phase in this sample. Across the six rate-cut phases, the average return was about 42%; the strongest phase returned 92%. Across the five rate-hike phases, the average was about 23%; the strongest returned 41.3%.

In this sample, the RBI's action by itself was not a reliable directional signal for the market.

During the moves, and during the pause

We split each phase into two parts:

Active period: when the RBI was changing rates.
Pause period: from the final rate move until the first move in the opposite direction.

During rate-hike phases, the Nifty 50 gained 17.6% on average in the active period and 8.9% in the pause. During rate-cut phases, it gained 12.1% on average while cuts were happening and 29.2% in the following pause.

The 2019 to 2020 period shows why the rate direction alone is not enough. The Nifty fell about 18% while the RBI was cutting rates, largely during the COVID market fall. After the final cut, it gained about 84% during the pause.

The practical takeaway

Rate decisions matter, but they are only one input. Earnings, economic growth, global events and money flows also shape the market's path.

This is a small sample of 11 phases, and several major events occurred within it. Treat the results as historical observations, not as a rule for future returns. A trader or investor should look at the full rate cycle and the wider market environment, rather than assume that a hike means a falling market or a cut means a rising one.

Looking at NMDC across multiple Point & Figure (P&F) timeframes, the picture becomes clear.
Higher box size shows a Turtle Breakout, while lower box sizes show rising support with higher lows, along with a 45° diagonal breakout, a simple structure of support holding and then breakout.
On the 0.5% chart, the structure is strong, but a large anchor column of X is visible. Entering here may not offer a favorable risk-reward, so it’s better to wait for a follow-through buy signal.
When a stock looks good on all timeframes, it means the trend is aligned and more reliable, not just a short-term move.

Sharing a view on Shriram Finance through Relative Strength (RS) Point & Figure charts.
Both ratios Shriram Finance vs Nifty 500 and Shriram Finance vs Definedge Finance, Housing, NBFC index are showing a breakout on the 3x3 P&F chart, which is generally considered a long-term structure.

This indicates that the stock has been strengthening relative to both the broader market and its sector. At the same time, the current move looks a bit stretched, so some consolidation or retracement in the short term could be possible, while the broader structure remains intact.

If the breakout sustains, it may continue to reflect relative strength. However, if it fails and moves back into the previous zone, the stock could start moving more in line with the indices or may even underperform.

Just sharing an observation from the charts for discussion and learning purposes.

Re: Chart of the Day

The structure shows signs of base formation. Using Point & Figure (P&F) counts, the chart is analyzed through both horizontal and vertical methods. The vertical count helps in understanding the strength of the move, while the horizontal count reflects the extent of the base formation — together highlighting important price zones where activity can be observed. Overall, this approach helps in studying price structure in a simple way while staying flexible with how the price evolves.

Looking at Sarda Energy on the Point & Figure (1x3) chart, the stock is currently consolidating after a strong uptrend and forming a healthy base.

An anchor column is visible, followed by a follow-through breakout, showing continued strength. The chart has also formed a spread pattern breakout, which is a 7-column structure — the 3rd column falls short, the 5th and 7th columns form at similar levels, and the final column gives the breakout, showing gradual accumulation before the move.

Horizontal counts have also been plotted, which give an idea of the possible zones where the move can extend.

Overall, the structure shows base building followed by a breakout, which can be watched going forward.

If the pattern continues, strength may sustain. However, if the price closes below the anchor column, it may indicate weakness and the trend could change.

Sharing this as a chart-based observation for learning and discussion.