Turtle Bullish Breakout
SL 2836 on closing basis for 3900

Since mid of 2020 i am using the Definedge Desk Top & Zone when i joined AhmedabadNest ,last year when Launched Securities at the event of Ahmedabad slowly i shift to Definedge Securities for my Trading -specially Nifty Spread under the guidance of @AP sir

now Definedge has come with exiting Independence Day Offer with much cheaper price for DMAT account holder & the amount paid for software will be adjusted againt the brokerage which is win win for users like me -so i just renewed the Securities DeskTop & RZONE for one year

i again thank you @Prashant-Shah sir @Definedge Team for creating such good software /Study at much affordable Price

Thanks and Regards

NishshKumar Jaani

New Indicator

#Bull or #Bear

confuse over market phase ?

weather bullish or bearish ?

wants to ride the bullish momentum ?

simply my indicator will guide you

when Green line above Red line=>Bullish
When Red line above Green line=>Bearish

This is indicator where we relay on crossovers so it will have leg while generating signal but it will give good participation in market

query/question mail me on [email protected]

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #analysis #StockMarketindia

#Nifty #bullish or #bearish ?

Two pattern at same time

Bullish-close above 19600 will have ascending triangle breakout can lead to 20300 with sl 19300

Bearish-close below 19300 will activate Head & Shoulder pattern can lead towards 18600 sl 19500

Hope both #Bulls & #Bears camp happy now

without beaing biased to view play with levels

#AhmedabadNest #Nifty #analysis #technical #StockMarket #India #pattern

Team @Definedge kindly add facility to plot exat Horizontal levels by writing like trading view give option to both desktop and web version

As you know i have made presentation on #VGM Concept which is to Ride momentum on Value Stock -Warren Buffett style -Parag Parikh Mutual Funds
Growth Stock-Peter lynch style-Motilal oswal Funds

now i like Hexashiled Frame work of stock selection so one can look to samco mutual funds Samco Flexicap fund

currently adding screenshot of stock one can look their factsheet everymonth after 10th to keep updating the list

read more about that concept at https://www.samcomf.com/hexaShield-tested-investments

Liknk of #VGM Prsentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUEdH9dlSHg&t=1838s

Are you a trend follower ? if yes then this post is for you

as a trend follower traders buy and sell & trade every movements of index or stock particular to get maximum benefit of the every twist and turns of that particular security.

like me you may have also face situation where trend following has extremely favourable time and extremely whipsaw phase

in times of whipsaw phas trade loose two important thing
A-> Capital
B-> Mental fitness

and due to both trader stop following strategy and step into finding another holy grail strategy and keep doing it

The real problem is not in the strategy it has the characteristics of generating super return and whipsaw phase the real problem is to find out the most beneficial period where the strategy has high chance of generating return

A->Fast
B->Easy
C-Consistance

No security has constant trending move ever so as a trend follower one need to findout the

TRENDING Moves where fast-easy-consitance move comes

see attcahed image where i have marked T which is the phase where security has TRENDING move at that time run trendfollwing strategy to get benefit and where there no T this is the phase where stop taking trades

Hope you love reading the article

Thanks and Regards

Nishshkumar Jaani

#Nifty 5% Correction ?

Turn Back Pattern on weekly chart

After 3 Green candle now complete strong bearish candle

looks Throw Back towards 18600 another 5 % Correction !

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarket #india #analysis #candlestic

Asian Paints -Ratio chart analysis

Plotted against Nifty 500 with Triple Moving average

Broken below large box
Bearish Anchor Follow thru
TMA negatively allinged

so all in all it looks stock will underperform the market

same thing has happen in reliance between 2008-2016 where it massively underperform the market

if i have only two choice between Asian paints and Nifty 500 i will choose to invest my money in nifty 500 BEES or That index fund till ratio chart dosent turn in favour of asian paints so my pain area reduce and if mkt rise i earn returns

#AhmedabadNest #stockmarkets #AsianPaints #analysis #ratiocharts

Distribution activity !

look at Nifty 500 price chart and my R GD Breadth chart

same structure happening like 2021 top

when mkt rising in one way this indicator has given golden cross in november 2021 and mkt suddenly made top -currently very close to give golden cross over

#AhmedabadNest #breadth #divergence #analysis #StockMarketindia

#VGM-Trading & Investing | #EDECNOCH2021

Universe of stock Ready to upload in Desktop & Web version link of Presentation

Ride the out performer and make your team strong Stay ahead with my VGM Setup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUEdH9dlSHg&t=18s

Those who need can mail me on [email protected]

#AhmedabadNest #system #trading #investing #nseindia #RS #relativestrength #StockMarketindia
@Definedge

Important question for Every trader-> Initial capital Requirment

Gone through many books / videos / course / connected traders and investors who presents excellent strategies but one important aspect about initial capital is not much talked about

Veteran trader and author Ashwani Gujaral sir in his book says you can not control the price movement but you can always control the volume you trade,most traders go bust because of volume ,not price !

For me I have identified few rules which might help you

naked Fu or Hedged Fu keep 3 times margin what the exchange ask For 1 lot

For spread in nifty keep 3 times of margin required by exchange For 1 lot

For naked long options keep 1 lot of margin equvivant to what the margin required to short that option for 1 lot

You can do anti martingale process where you reduce position sizing during drawdown and rising position sizing during favorable period

After seeing this much of margin requirment you will say return will decrease yes it affect but you can use extra margin in other investment like equity portfolio or Instrument like Gold silver ETF if price is favorable and raise Return on investments

Hope you like my words your suggestion / feedback kindly mail me [email protected]

#AhmedabadNest
#nseindia #stockmarkets #position #sizing

R GD-> Market timing Model

Updated chart -> Generate exit signal on 23/02/2024 now continue in exit mode

this suggest overall weak market structure

Avoid leverage/Margin Funnding

Tight Trailing stop losses

Avoid buy on dips look for Gold/Silver as earlier indicated for breakout and entry into this asset class

#AhmedaadNest #breadth #DataAnalytics #stockmarkets #India #analysis

Momentum 15
Momentum Dominators
Focused momentum
Value Dominators

all are at fresh breakout so revise counts and revise stop loss

all are weekly re balanced

for referance again name given

#AhmedabadNest #momentum #portfolios #trading #BREAKOUTSTOCKS #quant #DataAnalytics #nseindia #StockMarketindia

congrats from #AhmedabadNest

12 Stock equal weighted portfolio for 2023

Idea is create equal weighted portfolio in software use your favourite pattern to trade the entire portfolio

#AhmedabadNest

@Prashant Shah

Today shown Raju sir video on PMOX very good analysis

Stock Gives Bullish Momentum & oversold in bullish momentum AND Bearish momentum & over bought in bearish momentum

after that it goes into NETURAL zone between (75 to 25 )

when i scan it will show me oversold-over bought & bearish bullish momentum but after that PMOX indicator will fall into netural zone now in that condition i have to manually go and check weather stock is in netural zone after bullish & bearish momentum that will be time consuming

so my suggestion is that when PMOX is in netural zone put lable that this netural zone is followed by Bullish or bearish momentum so i can plan my entry

see chart of BHEL currently in netural zone but that is after Bullish momentum that i have to check charts by charts
@Prashant-Shah @@Definedge-Experts

#nifty

weekly chart observation

at new 52 week high -trying to breakout from large consolidation

RSI-Range shift above 60

MACD-Bullish crossovers

overall structure looks bullish after long consolidation post covid rally

mkt preparing for another round of strong bullish trend

yes ofcourse breadth goes to overbought -becomes normal -leadership changes

pullback -Retracements are good to project upside and trail stop loss

focus on the setup-Risk management-Follow the process

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #stockmarkets #analysis #BULLISH

Mkt has enterd into overbought /Euphoric Zone

last time seen between 14/8/2020 to 26/11/2021 in this time nifty 500 Gain 59 %

Average Return was 4.21 % Per Month

Idea is to do momentum trading with Stop Loss & Risk Management

In Ultimate Matrix of P&F -Renko for look back period give date selection tab so one do not need to calculate how many days he needs to go back he just can select this dates like i run of may be thursday so i have to calculate past days from current and with this i need to remember the trading holidays also otherwise result will be wrong so give direct date

plus rise the look back period from 100 as we are having the data with us ,if not possible on web version give in Desktop

@Prashant-Shah @Definedge @@Definedge-Experts

#Nifty 50

Ascending Triangle

Pattern has target of 22000 valid till lower blue trendline holds

yes market will have overbought zone on indicators and breadth & disparity on moving average that will give retracements that is common so there will be no one way rally towards target zone

#AhmedabadNest #NSE #analysis #StockMarketindia #breakout

to get this euphoric move need green line above red line -once that happen will update

in back testing give export option so one can sort best stock based on many factors like

Total minimum trades,ave return,success ratio,expetancy and make list to mimum

@Prashant-Shah @Definedge @@Definedge-Experts

#PowerPortfolio #Breakout

Anchor Follow Thru above Moving Average

Breakout From Bearish 45 Degree Trendline=Bullish

From current levels Double Bottom Sell is 3.5 % away while First count target is 12 % away

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarketindia #trading

Weekly Re balance Update for 26/06/2023

Frontline Dominators
Exit -Maruti-Bpcl
add-LT-NTPC

Focused Dominators
Exit-VBL-HAVELLS-GODRJECP
add-Indigo-icicipruli-bajaj holdings

Momentum Dominators
Exit-IDFCFIRSTB
add -Cummins

Value Dominators
Exit-Maruti
Add-Balkrishnaind

Momentum 15
Exit-IIFL-Indhotel
Add-Tiindia-M&MFIN

In case you missed full list of stock attached file

incase in query/question mail me [email protected]

Current Full list Updated

Equity Curve Trading

Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #momentum #portfolios #trading #BREAKOUTSTOCKS #quant #DataAnalytics #nseindia #StockMarketindia

Give date selection tab also along with period that will help

#Momentum 15 #portfolio

Fresh Multi column Bullish Breakout

As long as it holds DBS as sl portfolio is bullish

Weekly Re balanced on Rotational Momentum Logic again sharing the portfolio stock list

Equity Curve Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarketindia #trading #investing

PNB PFC JSL JINDALSTEL L&TFH M&M UNIONBANK IDFC NCC IDFCFIRSTB INDIANB HAL EQUITASBNK TIINDIA BHEL

Weekly Re balance & PerformanceUpdate For 03/07/2023

Nifty 500 Up by 2.61 % in last week

Frontline Momentum + 2.75 %
Exit-Apollo Hospitals/NTPC
Add-Maruti/M&M

Focused Momentum +3.54%
Exit-BajajHoldings
Add-GodrejCP

Momentum Dominators +4.16%
Exit-Cgpower/ITC/Cummins/PolyCab
Add-Cyient/SonataSoftware/Fincables/EquitasBank

Value Dominators +2%
Exit-BalkrishnaInd
Add-CMSINFO

Value Rotational +2.69%
Exit-MCX/ITC/HeroMoto
Add-Zyduslife/UTI AMC/CDSL

Momentum 15 +3.44%
Exit-BEL/IDFC/ApolloTyre/TVS Motor/Phoenix
Add-AB Cap/Cyient/Cummins/JSL/Zyduslife

In case you missed full list of stock attached file

incase in query/question mail me [email protected]

Current Full list Updated

Equity Curve Trading
Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #momentum #portfolios #trading #BREAKOUTSTOCKS #quant #DataAnalytics #nseindia #StockMarketindia

Hello Team @Definedge @@Definedge-Experts @Prashant-Shah sir

Thank you for giving 1 year intra day data -> my suggestion is to create intraday data only portal where few years of data is available -> make it extra paid like Trading view-> as back testing on 1 year and taking trades is not viable where one wants to put serious amount of time & money -> we need larger data which has seen up-down-consolidation trend of various index and stock and across various events like geopolitical as well as local events like election-> so one can have in smaple and out of sample data analysis and know the exat results of the strategy that how it has performed across various market cycle

Hopeing your favourable Response

Thanks and Regards

Nishshkumar Jaani

#nifty50

sharp correction below 19300 towards 18800-18700

choice is yours give it H&S / Rounding Top Pattern

why anticipating this move ? as my market timing model is in overbought zone and need some cool off

This correction will not affect larger structure infact this is just Thrawback to the breakout point which

in longer structure i am not in Bears camp

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #pattern #analysis #StockMarketindia

Hello @Prashant-Shah sir Team @Definedge @@Definedge-Experts

very good tool P&L Insight

my suggestion is to make segment wise seperate p&l insight that will show true picture of that particular segment efficiency of that trader & investor

Thanks and Regards

even internation GOLD is breakout after 12 years

Importance of Market Timing

Taken KOTAKALPHA at 26.15 on 25/04/2023 as on today it is 30.80= 17.78 % Return

in same duraion Nifty 500 deliver 10.88 %

from 1st jan to Till date Nifty 500 deliver 7.28 %

so in both case market timing model has helped to generate Alpha Return in very short duration

now need follow thru above 45 degree bearish trendline to take this index to all time high

stay tune for more updates if any query/question mail me on [email protected]

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarketindia #TradingSignals #analysis

Close above 588 will trigger Bullish ABC can move to 885 with stop loss of 538 on closing basis

Weekly Rebalance & Performance Update for 10/07/2023

Nifty 500 + 0.82 %

Value Rotational + 2.31%
Exit Axis Bank & Bajaj-Auto
Add HeroMoto & ICRA

Value Dominators + 1.74%
No Entry & Exit stock Remains same

Frontline Momentum +2.23%
Exit Maruti
Add BPCL

Focused Momentum -0.21%
Exit Zomato/BEL/Godrejcp
Add-IOC-BajajHolding/VBL

Momentum Dominators +0.38%
Exit-HAL & LTFH
Add-JSL &NCC

Momentum 15 +0.82%
Exit -AplApollo/ABCap/Cummins/Zyduslife/ABB
Add-PNB/M&M/Jindalsteel/IDFC/Bankbaroda

in case you missed full list of stock attached file

incase in query/question mail me [email protected]

Equity Curve Trading Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #momentum #portfolios #trading #BREAKOUTSTOCKS #quant #DataAnalytics #nseindia #StockMarketindia

on twitter & definedge noiseless telegram i ahve updated on 24/3/2023 that mkt is going to hit bottom and it did

see various diversifed index generated return from 16.48 % to 27.76 %

one can participate market via ETFs & divicerified mutual funds

choice is your edge is the key
#AhmedabadNest #quant #DataAnalytics #NSE #StockMarketindia

i understand your concern but i cant disclose the full details currently but yes time to time i will update so members can be on alert what i can say is that this is based on fundamental factors in case query/question mail me [email protected]

#Nifty

weekly charts with some channels

#AhmedabadNest #analysis #technical

#Nifty

my market timing model is in overbought zone expecting correction towards 19200-18800 that will help to cool of the model and will give another opportunity to participate in next big rally

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarket #India #analysis #correction #retracement

all my momentum back portfolio are in buy mode

Below is the list of stocks with their current weight for referance purpose

Re balancing activity at every 15 days -next re balance on 15/09/2023

Equity curve Trading Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarket #analysis

look for Ratio trend matrix

82 Days Time Cycle for Nifty 50

Nifty has wonderful ups & down based on 82 days fixed time interval

As J M Hurts principal of Variation -> Financial market dosent repeat exat cycle ,it has its own variation

so i have put 21 days EMA to follow bullish & bearish cycle

If bullish period & Price Below 21 EMA then ignore bullish phase
If bearish period & Price Above 21 EMA then ignore bearish phase

Currently in bullish cycle which is going to mature around 16th november 2023 as long as holds 21 EMA i am bullish

#AhmedabadNest #Cycle #analysis #StockMarket #NSE

3 Dominators Portfolio given Exit Signal

Focused Momentum
Value Dominators
Momentum Dominators -100 % Bearish Pole & Double Bottom sell

when momentum dominators gives such signal in backtesting we have observed fast correction in market so be careful in longs now as momentum has loose its charm so dont focus on breakouts chances are high that it fails now

in week end will study my market timing model if given sell signal from highly overbought zone will allocate equity to Gold

Equity Curve Trading Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #dominators #Portfolio #nse #StockMarket #india #analysis

#Nifty

cluster of support

Trendline + 50 EMA

If both dosent respect then correction towards 100 & 150 EMA (19200-18900)

My market timing model is 94 %

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarket #india #analysis

#INDIA #VIX

at important levels of 45 degree trendline -if sustain above trendline be ready to quick correction in #Nifty

#AhmedabadNest #NSE #StockMarket #india #analysis

Momentum Dominator Portfolio

Bearish Anchor Follow thru suggest soft landing for bears going ahead

along with this still my market timing model is highly overbought above 90% which suggest cool off required in market

Equity Curve Trading

Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #momentum #dominators #Portfolio #pattern #analysis

Power Portfolio RS & Price Analysis

Left side chart is of Price chart which is in Double Bottom sell after anchor column so probably forming bullish ABC

Right side chart is Relative Strength chart against Nifty 500 which is above super trend means its relatively strong

as long as price chart dosent give buy signal no commitment into the market

Equity curve Trading

Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #power #portfolio #stockmarkets #nseindia #analysis

#GOLDBEES

Currently my Power Portfolio is in Double Bottom sell so i have another option to park my money in GoldBees

which is currently below super trend so have to park money in LiquidBees

attaching BackTesting Data & GoldBees chart for referance

#AhmedabadNest #goldbees #gold #analysis #DataAnalytics #backtesting

Nifty Alpha 50-Bull trap or Euphoric move ?

Double Top buy active with T-20 pattern

Two probability either bull trap or Euphoric move

why Bull trap-> Breadth is in over bought zone

Why euphoric move-> In strong market breadth can remain overheated longer then one can expect

#AhmedabadNest #Nifty #analysis #StockMarket #india #momentum

Nifty-bear attack ?

Nifty not able to cross the gap down gap

ADX falling has taken whipsaws in trend following system

if ADX cross both DMI then bears ko control karna muskil hoga

#AhmedabadNest #analysis #StockMarket #india #nseindia

#PowerPortfolio

Price and Ratio wise below Super Trend means no scope for Equity for me.

if you remeber i was updating my market timing model reading was above 90% in fcat reached 94 % at its peak and this is highly overbought zone

Always do check the Health of market along with price action

50% work is done if you can save drawdown in correction

Equity Curve Trading

Edge is the key

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarket #india #analysis

Those who are holding stocks equivivalant to future lot size can do covered call strategy in Asian paints

Nifty 500

Break below Super Trend indicator =>Bearish

ADX works very good for buy sell,now near to give sell signal if that happen then expect further downside move

for me as a momentum trader no scope for equity

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #stockmarkets #analysis

Portfolio for 2024

20 stock equal weightage 2 model portfolios

No re balance required -will remove if significant event like merger or serious corporate governance issue happen

#AhmedabadNest #2024 #yearly #portfolio #StockMarketindia #nseindia #Quant #DataScience #DataAnalytics

Conterian Indicator R GD flashed Exit Mode

Last time on 17/3/2023- This indicator flashed Entry Mode (check tweet )

When ever Indicator in Death cross and Below Zero-Entry Point into market

When ever Indicator in Golden cross and above Zero-Exit point from market

See how various Index has delivered Return weekly and monthly basis and net basis

Now based on my experience Few point to kept in mind

1-Long only apparoch will have little difficult time
2-Stop leverage Trading
3-Stop Marging Funding
4-High P/E stock will have more correction
5-Valuation will back to mean

"Will Feel it was market that it wants to give you Returns "
Also find image in which index i see more correction

attached image-R GD/ Return of various index/List of index where i see more correction

#AhmedabadNest #conterian #nseindia #StockMarketindia #Indicator #analysis #index

Thanks and Regards

Nishshkumar Jaani

Ratio chart of GOLDBEES/NIFTY 500

Now trading at 2008 levels

Look for Bullish Setup to enter into Goldbees

Look For bearish Setup to Exit from market

#AhmedabadNest #nseindia #StockMarketindia #nifty #gold #rotation #assetclass

It is the first Liquid ETF in India that provides convenience of Growth NAV (Net Asset Value), thus making it easier to track and maintain by eliminating dividend tracking. Additionally, the returns are taxed only when the ETF is sold, unlike other ETFs that pay dividends and are taxed continuously.

So no problem of fraction Units and its calculation

Silver

Mcx silver is trying to breakout after long consolidation

expecting 121000

Retailers can have an option on NSE-SILVERBEES

#AhmedabadNest #silversqueeze #analysis #India #mcx #nseindia #bees #ETFs